Using remotely sensed indices of primary productivity to evaluate large mammal abundance and movement in the arid Southwestern United States

Southwestern ecoregions are marked by topographic and climatic variability, which facilitates the coexistence of large herbivores exploiting different dietary niches. Mountain ungulates buffer this variability through physiological and behavioral adaptations such as fat accumulation and seasonal migrations. However, projected climatic shifts imply changes in vegetation biomass and phenology, and therefore mammalian distributions. Here we evaluate how the distribution of primary productivity and phenological rhythms influence abundance and seasonal movements of three widely distributed ungulate species and their principal predator. We used spatio-temporal patterns in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) measurements at 250-m, daily resolution to explain spatial variability in the abundance of mule deer, elk, and bighorn sheep. Ungulate population response to NDVI was assessed using annual survey data collected by state wildlife agencies with jurisdiction on and around the Colorado Plateau ecoregion. We used NDVI-ungulate relationships to evaluate the spatial requirements and potential densities of cougars; a predator whose diet, density, and distribution is closely tied to these species. Cougar location data were combined from nine radio-telemetry studies conducted over a range of climatic conditions. Focal ungulates demonstrated differing responses to patterns in NDVI. Mule deer abundance corresponded to the timing of green-up (late spring), elk abundance correlated best with peak green biomass (July-Aug), and bighorn showed no relationship to NDVI. Seasonal movements also differed, with deer migrating between distinct summer and winter ranges; bighorn residing on annual ranges, and elk demonstrating a mixed pattern of residency and migration. Cougar movements did not correspond to phenology per se, but home range size and diet diversity varied inversely with NDVI. Projected shifts in the timing and amount of precipitation suggest three considerations for large mammal conservation in the Southwest. First, being tied to June NDVI, mule deer distribution is likely to track areas defined by relatively early growing seasons, whereas elk abundance is likely to increase in response to enhanced summer precipitation. Second, in mesic environments bighorn sheep are both poor competitors and susceptible to predation. To the extent that bighorn sheep are forced to share ranges with deer or elk, they may be adversely affected by changing climate. Lastly, shifts in ungulate abundance may lead cougars to switch prey in some localities, or contract from the drier portions of their current range as energetic costs rise beyond threshold values.