Integrated climate/land use/hydrological change scenarios for assessing threats to ecosystem services on California rangelands

In California there are over 18 million acres of rangelands in the Central Valley and the interior Coast Range, most of which are privately owned and managed for livestock production. Ranches provide extensive wildlife habitat and generate multiple ecosystem services that carry considerable market and non-market values. These rangelands are under pressure from urbanization and conversion to intensive agriculture, as well as from climate change that can alter the flow of these services. To understand the coupled and isolated impacts of land use and climate change on rangeland ecosystem services, we developed six spatially explicit (250 m) coupled climate/land use/hydrological change scenarios for the Central Valley and oak woodland regions of California consistent with three IPCC emission scenarios - A2, A1B and B1. Three land use land cover (LULC) change scenarios were each integrated with two downscaled global climate models (GCMs) (a warm, wet future and a hot, dry future) and related hydrologic data. We used these scenarios to quantify wildlife habitat, water supply (recharge potential and streamflow) and carbon sequestration on rangelands and to conduct an economic analysis associated with changes in these benefits. The USGS FOREcasting SCEnarios of land-use change model (FORE-SCE), which runs dynamically with downscaled GCM outputs, was used to generate maps of yearly LULC change for each scenario from 2006 to 2100. We used the USGS Basin Characterization Model (BCM), a regional water balance model, to generate change in runoff, recharge, and stream discharge based on land use change and climate change. Metrics derived from model outputs were generated at the landscape scale and for six case-study watersheds. At the landscape scale, over a quarter of the million acres set aside for conservation in the B1 scenario would otherwise be converted to agriculture in the A2 scenario, where temperatures increase by up to 4.5 °C compared to 1.3 °C in the B1 scenario. A comparison of two watersheds - Alameda Creek, an urbanized watershed, and Upper Stony Creek, impacted by intensified agriculture, demonstrates the relative contribution of urbanization and climate change to water supply. In Upper Stony Creek, where 24% of grassland is converted to agriculture in the A1B scenario, a hotter, dryer 4-year time period could lead to a 40% reduction in streamflow compared to present day. In Alameda Creek, for the same scenario, 47% of grassland is converted to urbanized lands and streamflow may increase by 11%, resulting in a recharge:runoff ratio of 0.26; though if urbanization does not take place, streamflow could decrease by 64% and the recharge:runoff ratio would be 1.2. Model outputs quantify the impact of urbanization on water supply and show the importance of soil storage capacity. Scenarios have applications for climate-smart conservation and land use planning by identifying outcomes associated with coupled future land use scenarios and more variable and extreme potential future climates.