Precipitation and temperature variations affecting glacierised Himalayan headwaters and water resources in the upper Indus and Sutlej basins

Both the main stem upper Indus and Sutlej rivers feed major reservoirs for hydropower plants and supply water for irrigated agriculture in the Punjab plains. Flows in both rivers have shown significant decreases since the mid-20th century. Monsoon precipitation, which dominates flow in lower Himalayan section of the Sutlej as the upper basin on the Tibetan plateau is fairly dry, has declined by about 30% since the 1950s maximum. Air temperatures decreased from the 1960s to 1980s before recovering in the early 2000s to previous levels. Any enhanced glacier melt in the late twentieth century failed to offset declining precipitation and river flow continued to fall. In the upper Indus basin, precipitation derived in winter from the westerlies was enhanced but temperatures remained flat at stations in valleys at which measurements were undertaken. Runoff from tributary basins of the Indus, which have variable percentages of ice-cover, appears to be subdued as precipitation gently increased. Temperature was more stable than in mountain basins farther east. Valley bottoms in the Karakoram are arid, so that precipitation on glaciers reduces flow but there is little seasonal slow to melt to contribute to runoff in the ice-free areas. Changes in glacierised area seem to have limited impact on flow in these two significant rivers. Precipitation in Himalayan sub-catchments dominates flow, but has contrasting effects on runoff downstream. Temporal variations in both winter and summer precipitation along the Himalayan arc therefore have strong influences on the sustainability of water resources in the adjacent plains.