Impacts of snow water equivalent on forest disturbance in the Sierra Nevada with climate change

High Sierra snow and ice provide the primary water supply for the Sierra Nevada ecosystem. Understanding how climate change affects high Sierra snowmelt and how these changes impact forest disturbance is important for future forest management. Snow water equivalent (SWE) anomalies were averaged on a monthly basis and overall trends of snowpack availability and timing of snowmelt were examined throughout the Sierra Nevada from 2003 - 2012. Periods of decreased snowpack were examined alongside periods of decreased soil moisture, increased soil temperature, and increased wild fires. This project used NASA Earth Observations (EOS) such as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for snow cover and Landsat 5 for extent of forest disturbance and vegetative analysis. We also used ancillary and modeled datasets such as temperature, precipitation, and water flow rate to provide a better understanding of the relation between snowpack, soil moisture availability, and soil temperature to wildfires. A Generalized Additive Model (GAM) was used to make predictions of future forest disturbance patterns as well to analyze the sensitivity of particular variables indicative of wildfire. This information is useful for forest management decisions within the US Forest Service and will assist in the incorporation of climate change impact assessments on forest health. Layers of various climatic and surface conditions along with areas of fire are used in the Generalize Additive Model to create a wildfire risk map of the Sierra Nevada M261E Ecological Region, CA.