The Hawaiian Volcano Observatory's current approach to forecasting lava flow hazards (Invited)

Hawaiian Volcanoes are best known for their frequent basaltic eruptions, which typically start with fast-moving channelized `a`a flows fed by high eruptions rates. If the flows continue, they generally transition into pahoehoe flows, fed by lower eruption rates, after a few days to weeks. Kilauea Volcano's ongoing eruption illustrates this--since 1986, effusion at Kilauea has mostly produced pahoehoe. The current state of lava flow simulation is quite advanced, but the simplicity of the models mean that they are most appropriately used during the first, most vigorous, days to weeks of an eruption - during the effusion of `a`a flows. Colleagues at INGV in Catania have shown decisively that MAGFLOW simulations utilizing satellite-derived eruption rates can be effective at estimating hazards during the initial periods of an eruption crisis. However, the algorithms do not simulate the complexity of pahoehoe flows. Forecasts of lava flow hazards are the most common form of volcanic hazard assessments made in Hawai`i. Communications with emergency managers over the last decade have relied on simple steepest-descent line maps, coupled with empirical lava flow advance rate information, to portray the imminence of lava flow hazard to nearby communities. Lavasheds, calculated as watersheds, are used as a broader context for the future flow paths and to advise on the utility of diversion efforts, should they be contemplated. The key is to communicate the uncertainty of any approach used to formulate a forecast and, if the forecast uses simple tools, these communications can be fairly straightforward. The calculation of steepest-descent paths and lavasheds relies on the accuracy of the digital elevation model (DEM) used, so the choice of DEM is critical. In Hawai`i, the best choice is not the most recent but is a 1980s-vintage 10-m DEM--more recent LIDAR and satellite radar DEM are referenced to the ellipsoid and include vegetation effects. On low-slope terrain, steepest descent lines calculated on a geoid-based DEM may differ significantly from those calculated on an ellipsoid-based DEM. Good estimates of lava flow advance rates can be obtained from empirical compilations of historical advance rates of Hawaiian lava flows. In this way, rates appropriate for observed flow types (`a`a or pahoehoe, channelized or not) can be applied. Eruption rate is arguably the most important factor, while slope is also significant for low eruption rates. Eruption rate, however, remains the most difficult parameter to estimate during an active eruption. The simplicity of the HVO approach is its major benefit. How much better can lava-flow advance be forecast for all types of lava flows? Will the improvements outweigh the increased uncertainty propagated through the simulation calculations? HVO continues to improve and evaluate its lava flow forecasting tools to provide better hazard assessments to emergency personnel.