A comparison of seismicity in world's subduction zones: Implication by the difference of b-values

Since the pioneering study of Uyeda and Kanamori (1979), it has been thought that world's subduction zones can be classified into two types: Chile and Mariana types. Ruff and Kanamori (1980) suggested that the maximum earthquake size within each subduction zone correlates with convergence rate and age of subducting lithosphere. Subduction zones with younger lithosphere and larger convergence rates are associated with great earthquakes (Chile), while subduction zones with older lithosphere and smaller convergence rates have low seismicity (Mariana). However, these correlations are obscured after the 2004 Sumatra earthquake and the 2009 Tohoku earthquake. Furthermore, McCaffrey (2008) pointed out that the history of observation is much shorter than the recurrence times of very large earthquakes, suggesting a possibility that any subduction zone may produce earthquakes larger than magnitude 9. In the present study, we compare world's subduction zones in terms of b-values in the Gutenberg-Richer relation. We divided world's subduction zones into 146 regions, each of which is bordered by a trench section of about 500 km and extends for 200 km from the trench section in the direction of relative plate motion. In each region, earthquakes equal to or larger than M4.5 occurring during 1988-2009 were extracted from ISC catalog. We find a positive correlation between b-values and ages of subducting lithosphere, which is one of the two important variables discussed in Ruff and Kanamori (1980). Subduction zones with younger lithosphere are associated with high b-values and vice versa, while we cannot find a correlation between b-values and convergence rates. We used the ages determined by Müller et al. (2008) and convergence rate calculated using PB2002 (Bird, 2003) for convergence rate. We also found a negative correlation between b-values and the estimates of seismic coupling, which is defined as the ratio of the observed seismic moment release rate to the rate calculated from plate tectonic velocities (Scholz and Campos, 2012). Lithosphere age also has a weak negative correlation with the degree of seismic coupling. Based on differences in b-values for the types of faulting, Schorlemmer et al. (2005) suggested that b-value depends inversely on differential stress. This idea, taken together with correlations in the present study, suggests a model where the buoyancy of subducting slabs which depends on the lithosphere age determines stress state and the b-value in each sunbduction zone. The stress state also controls the seismic coupling. This model is basically consistent with the idea of Ruff and Kanamori (1980). Subduction zones with younger and lighter lithosphere are in a compressive stress state and associate with high coupling and small b-values (Chile), while those with older and heavier lithosphere are in a tensional stress state and correlate with low coupling and large b-values (Mariana). Subduction zones such as Nicaragua and El Salvador where b-values are much higher than the expectation from the above correlations may be explained by considering the fact that local tectonics affects the seismic coupling (LaFemina et al., 2009; Scholz and Campos, 2012).