Modelling the impact of large dams on flows and hydropower production of the Sekong, Sesan and Srepok Rivers in the Mekong Basin

Water flow patterns in the Mekong River and its tributaries are changing due to water resources development, particularly as a result of on-going rapid hydropower development of tributaries for economic growth. Local communities and international observers are concerned that alterations of natural flow patterns will have great impacts on biodiversity, ecosystem services, food securing and livelihood in the basin. There is also concern that un-coordinated dam development will have an adverse impact on energy production potential of individual hydropower plants. Of immediate concern is the proposed hydropower development in the transboundary Srepok, Sesan and Srekong (3S) Basin, which contributes up to 20% of the Mekong's annual flows, has a large potential for energy production, and provides critical ecosystem services to local people and the downstream Tonle Sap Lake and the Mekong delta. To assess the magnitude of potential changes in flows and hydropower production, daily flows were simulated over 20 years (1986-2005) using the SWAT and HEC ResSim models for a range of dam development and operations scenarios. Simulations of all current and proposed hydropower development in the 3S basin (41 dams) using an operation scheme to maximize electricity production will increase average dry seasonal flows by 88.1% while average wet seasonal flows decrease by 24.7% when compared to the baseline (no dams) scenario, About 55% of dry season flows changes are caused by the seven largest proposed dams (Lower Srepok 3, Lower Srepok4, Lower Sesan 3, Lower Sesan and Srepok 2, Xekong 5, Xekong 4, and Xe Xou). The total active storage of the existing and ongoing hydropower projects is only 6,616 million m3 while the cumulative active storage of the seven large proposed dams is 17,679 million m3. The Lower Srepok 3 project causes the highest impact on seasonal flow changes. Average energy production of the existing and ongoing hydropower projects is 73.2 GWh/day. Additional benefits from energy production of the seven large proposed dams (33.0 GWh/day) are less than half compared to the cumulative benefits of the exiting and ongoing projects. In total, potential energy production of all dams is 129.1 GWh/day. Cascade dam simulations, under an independent operation regime, result in high electricity production of downstream dams, particularly of small storage dams. Hourly flow alterations, however, can be significant due to intra daily reservoir operations and warrant further study as well as impact of climate change on flows and hydropower operation. Strategic site selection and coordinated reservoir operations between countries and dam operators are necessary to achieve an acceptable level of energy production in the basin and mitigate negative impacts to seasonal flow patterns which sustain downstream ecosystem productivity and livelihoods.