Headwaters, Wetlands, and Wildfires: Utilizing Landsat imagery, GIS, and Statistical Models for Mapping Wetlands in Northern Colorado's Cache la Poudre Watershed in the aftermath of the June 2012 High Park Fire

The June 2012 High Park Fire burned over 87,000 acres of forest and 259 homes to the west of Fort Collins, CO. The fire has had dramatic impacts on forest ecosystems; of particular concern are its effects on the Cache la Poudre watershed, as the Poudre River is one of the most important headwaters of the Colorado Front Range, providing important ecosystem and economic services before flowing into the South Platte, which in turn flows into the Missouri River. Within a week of the fire, the area received several days of torrential rains. This precipitation--in conjunction with steep riverbanks and the loss of vegetation by fire--caused soil and ash runoff to be deposited into the Poudre's channel, resulting in a river of choking mud and black sludge. Monitoring the effects of such wildfires is critical and requires establishing immediate baseline data to assess impacts over time. Of particular concern is the region's wetlands, which not only provide habitat for a rich array of flora and fauna, but help regulate river discharge, improve water quality, and aid in carbon sequestration. However, the high expense of field work and the changing nature of wetlands have left many of the area's wetland maps incomplete and in need of updating. Utilizing Landsat 5 and Landsat 8 imagery, ancillary GIS layers, and boosted regression trees modeling, the NASA DEVELOP team based at the North Central Climate Science Center at Colorado State University developed a methodology for wetland modeling within the Cache la Poudre watershed. These efforts produced a preliminary model of predicted wetlands across the landscape that correctly classified 89% of the withheld validation points and had a kappa value of approximately 0.78. This initial model is currently being refined and validated using the USGS Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling (SAHM) to run multiple models within three elevation-based 'life zones.' The ultimate goal of this ongoing project is to provide important spatial data for land managers in the watershed, as well as an efficient, economical, and accurate wetland mapping methodology that can be reproduced throughout the intermountain west region.