A numerical model to evaluate potential impacts of sea-level rise on groundwater resources in the Delaware coastal plain

Sea level rise on the U.S. East Coast has accelerated much faster than in other parts of the world. In Delaware, the estimated sea level could rise as high as 1.5 meters by the year 2100 based on the information in IPCC (2007) and CCSP (2009). In this study, we used a 3-D variable-density groundwater flow model to study the movement of the fresh-water/salt-water interface and water table changes due to sea-level rise. Rather than developing a site-specific model, we analyzed the geospatial features of a serious of sub-watersheds along the coastline of the Delaware Estuary in Delaware using ArcGIS and constructed a representative model to capture the generalized flow patterns and saltwater intrusion rates that occur in typical area. Different scenarios with varying parameters were simulated. The simulation results were then applied to the Delaware River region to evaluate potential impacts of groundwater level changes on the potential land lose.