Simulation of radioactive tracer transport using IsoRSM and uncertainty analysis

Due to the massive earthquakes and tsunami on March 11 2011 in Eastern Japan, Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant was severely damaged and some reactors were exploded. To know how the radioactive materials were spread and how much they were deposited into the land, it is important to enhance the accuracy of radioactive transport simulation model. However, there are uncertainties in the models including dry and wet deposition process in the models, meteorological field and release amount of radioactive materials. In this study we analyzed these uncertainties aiming for higher accuracy in the simulation. We modified the stable isotope mode of Regional Spectral Model (IsoRSM, Yoshimura et al., 2009) to enable to simulate the transport of the radioactive tracers, namely iodine 131 and cesium 137, by including the dry and wet deposition processes. With this model, we conducted a set of sensitivity experiments using different parameters in the deposition processes, different diffusivity in advection processes, and different domain sizes. The control experiment with 10km resolution covering most of Japan and surrounding oceans (132.7oE-151.5oE &28.3oN-46.7oN) and the emission estimated by Chino et al. (2011) showed reasonable temporal results for Toukatsu area (eastern part of Tokyo metropolis and western part of Chiba prefecture where low-level contamination was occurred), i.e., on 22 March, the tracers from Fukushima were reached and precipitated in a significant amount as wet deposition. Thus we conducted 4 experimental simulations to analyze the simulation uncertainty due to 1) different meteorological pattern, different parameters for 2) wet and 3) dry deposition and 4) diffusion. Though the temporal patterns of deposition of radioactive particles were somewhat similar each other in all experiments, we revealed that the impacts to the area mean deposition were large. Results of the simulations with different diffusivity and different domain size showed that the patterns of precipitation amount and distribution, and deposition amount were affected. The new transport scheme, semi-lagrangian scheme could show some improvement in the simulated meteorological field. Furthermore, we have begun the inversion estimation combined with IsoRSM and the monitoring data from the Nuclear regulation Agency. Preliminary results with consecutive two week simulations starting every day with daily unit release will be shown at the conference. References 1. Yoshimura, K., Kanamitsu. M. and Dettinger. M.: Regional downscaling for stable water isotopes: A case study of an atmospheric river event, Journal of geophysical research, Vol.15, D18114, doi:10.1029/2010JD014032, 2010 2. Chino, M., Nakayama. H., Nagai. H., Terada. H., Katata. G. and Yamazawa. H.: Preliminary estimation of release amounts of 131I and 137Cs accidentally discharged from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant into the atmosphere, Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, Vol.48, No.7, p.1129-1134, 2011