Coherence between Great Basin precipitation and low frequency Pacific Ocean variability in CMIP5

Precipitation over the northern Wasatch Range of the Great Basin provides water for millions of people, and observations indicate its sensitivity to Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) modes including a 3-7 year El Nino-like pattern and a multidecadal pattern in the north Pacific resembling the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). We assessed the fidelity of this precipitation-SST connectivity for models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) by using historical (1900-2005) monthly model output. Coherence analyses at various lags indicated that the observed precipitation-SST connectivity was best captured by the NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM). We show how these results are being used to incorporate low-frequency variations in a nonstationary daily stochastic weather generator suitable for hydrology and ecosystem impact studies out to the year 2100.