Induced seismicity and CO2 leakage through fault zones during large-scale underground injection in a multilayered sedimentary system

The importance of geomechanics including the potential for reactivating faults associated with large-scale geologic carbon sequestration operations has recently become more widely recognized. However, not withstanding the potential for triggering notable (felt) seismic events, the potential for buoyancy-driven CO2 to reach potable groundwater and the ground surface is more important from safety and storage-efficiency perspectives. In this context, this work extends previous studies on the geomechanical modeling of fault responses during underground carbon dioxide injection, focusing on short-term integrity of the sealing caprock, and hence of potential leakage of either brine or CO2 to shallow groundwater aquifers during active injection. We account for a stress/strain-dependent permeability and study the leakage through a fault zone as its permeability changes during a reactivation, also causing seismicity. We analyze several scenarios related to the injected amount of CO2 (and hence as a function of the overpressure) both involving minor and major faults, and analyze the profile risks of leakage for different stress/strain permeability coupling functions, as well as increasing the complexity of the fault zone in terms of hydromechanical heterogeneities. We conclude that whereas it is very difficult to predict how much fault permeability could change upon reactivation, this process can have a significant impact on the leakage rate. The presence of hydromechanical heterogeneity influences the pressure diffusion, as well as the effective normal and shear stress evolution. Hydromechanical heterogeneities (i) strengthen the fault zone resulting in earthquake of small magnitude, and (ii) prevent a good fluid migration upward along the fault. We also study the effects of the caprock and aquifer thickness on the resulting induced seismicity and CO2 leakage, both in heterogeneous and homogeneous fault zone. Results show that a thin caprock or aquifer allows smaller events, but a much higher percentage of leakage in the upper aquifer. The elevate amount of leakage reduces drastically by assuming a multi-caprock, multi-aquifer system.