Energy-Water Integrated Assessment of the Sacramento Area and a Demonstration of WEAP-LEAP Capability

We report on the full integration of a new basin-scale analysis capability suitable for forecasting demand and supply of water and energy for residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural sector users in a specific region. We selected the Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) framework and the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system as models to be linked, because of their wide use for regional planning and their balance between model fidelity, data needs, and analysis capability. This is the first fully linked application of these models to our knowledge. We apply the integrated model to study water-energy problems facing the American River and Sacramento region of California. This area is thought to be uniquely vulnerable to climate variability because of compounded climate effects. For example, in the past this area has seen dry and hot spells that have resulted in dramatic spikes in water and electricity demand precisely when regional power production, hydro and thermal, are the most constrained. Energy and water linkages in the study area include power generation, water treatment, agriculture irrigation, and water pumping to residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. To explore how uncertainty in climate prediction affects planning for water and energy resources we forecast water and energy implications for several alternative meteorological conditions. These conditions are derived from climate scenarios from the 'Downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate and Hydrology Projections" archives and are coupled with area-specific data. The stress placed on the water-energy system highlighted by this suite of model runs, will demonstrate how uncertainty in climate forecasts is dampened or exacerbated by human infrastructure systems. Modeling results indicate that water and electricity demands and supplies are particularly vulnerable to linked temperature and precipitation extremes, likely to occur with increasing frequency in future due to climate change.