Modeling water resources as a constraint in electricity capacity expansion models

In the United States, the electric power sector is the largest withdrawer of freshwater in the nation. The primary demand for water from the electricity sector is for thermoelectric power plant cooling. Areas likely to see the largest near-term growth in population and energy usage, the Southwest and the Southeast, are also facing freshwater scarcity and have experienced water-related power reliability issues in the past decade. Lack of water may become a barrier for new conventionally-cooled power plants, and alternative cooling systems will impact technology cost and performance. Although water is integral to electricity generation, it has long been neglected as a constraint in future electricity system projections. Assessing the impact of water resource scarcity on energy infrastructure development is critical, both for conventional and renewable energy technologies. Efficiently utilizing all water types, including wastewater and brackish sources, or utilizing dry-cooling technologies, will be essential for transitioning to a low-carbon electricity system. This work provides the first demonstration of a national electric system capacity expansion model that incorporates water resources as a constraint on the current and future U.S. electricity system. The Regional Electricity Deployment System (ReEDS) model was enhanced to represent multiple cooling technology types and limited water resource availability in its optimization of electricity sector capacity expansion to 2050. The ReEDS model has high geographic and temporal resolution, making it a suitable model for incorporating water resources, which are inherently seasonal and watershed-specific. Cooling system technologies were assigned varying costs (capital, operations and maintenance), and performance parameters, reflecting inherent tradeoffs in water impacts and operating characteristics. Water rights supply curves were developed for each of the power balancing regions in ReEDS. Supply curves include costs and availability of freshwater (surface and groundwater) and alternative water resources (municipal wastewater and brackish groundwater). In each region, a new power plant must secure sufficient water rights for operation before being built. Water rights constraints thus influence the type of power plant, cooling system, or location of new generating capacity. Results indicate that the aggregate national generating capacity by fuel type and associated carbon dioxide emissions change marginally with the inclusion of water rights. Water resource withdrawals and consumption, however, can vary considerably. Regional water resource dynamics indicate substantial differences in the location where power plant-cooling system technology combinations are built. These localized impacts highlight the importance of considering water resources as a constraint in the electricity sector when evaluating costs, transmission infrastructure needs, and externalities. Further scenario evaluations include assessments of how climate change could affect the availability of water resources, and thus the development of the electricity sector.