Temporal sea-surface gravity changes observed near the source area prior to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

Recent seismological studies suggested subsurface activities preceding the 2011 Tohoku earthquake; the occurrence of migration of seismicity (Kato et al., 2012) and slow slip events (Ito et al., 2013) in and around the source area one month before the mainshock. In this study, we investigated sea-surface gravity changes observed by the shipboard gravimeter mounted on research vessels before the mainshock. The vessels incidentally passed through the source area along almost the same cruise track twice, four months before and one month before the mainshock. Comparing the sea surface gravity in the former track with that in the latter after Bouguer correction, we find the gravity changes of approximately 7 mGal in coseismic slip areas near the trench axis during the three months. We find these gravity changes even in the crossing areas of the cruise tracks where seafloor topographies have no differences between the tracks. We also find that the topographic differences show positive changes but the gravity changes negative ones in other areas, which is a negative correlation inconsistent with the theoretical relationship between the topographic difference and the gravity change. These mean that the differences of seafloor topographies due to differences between the two cruise tracks are not main causes of the observed gravity changes there. The changes cannot also be explained by drifts of the gravimeter and geostrophic currents. Although we have not had any clear evidences, we speculate that the possible cause may be density increases around the seismogenic zone or uplifts of seafloor in order to explain the changes of this size. We estimate the density increases of 1.0 g/cm**3 in a disk with a radius of 40 km and a width of 200 m or the uplifts of several tens of meters in seafloor areas for the observed gravity changes. Our results indicate that sea-surface gravity observations may be one of valid approaches to monitor the approximate location of a possible great earthquake in offshore areas.