Analyzing dynamics of snow distribution and melt runoff in a meso-scaled watershed using the AgroEcoSystem-Watershed (AgES-W) model

The seasonal snow cover in the western mountain regions of the United States functions as the primary supply and storage of water. Water management in these areas is often based on empirical relationships between point measurements of snow water equivalent (SWE) at selected sites and associated stream discharge. With a climate shifting towards more rain and less snow, due to the global warming, the patterns of snow deposition, and consequently the timing of melt, soil water content and the flow in streams and rivers will most likely alter. As a consequence, the established relationships between measured SWE and runoff will become unstable and unreliable, and consequently impacting the water resource management in this area. To better assess and understand the spatial and temporal dimension of altered snow cover on runoff generation in the intermountain region of the western United States, we set up the distributed hydrological AgroEcoSystem-Watershed (AgES-W) model for the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed (239 km²) in the Owyhee Mountains of Idaho. The study area with elevations ranging from 1101 to 2241 m is dominated by granitic and volcanic rocks and lake sediments. Deep moist soils allowing for mountain big sagebrush aspen and subalpine fir are found at higher elevations, whereas shallow, arid soils supporting sagebrush-grassland communities are common at lower elevations. Precipitation in the region varies from 230 mm at the lower elevations in the north up to 1100 mm in the higher regions at the southern margin south. The mean annual streamflow at the outlet is 0.56 m³/s. Since the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed (RCEW) was selected as a test basin in 1959, a comprehensive hydro-climatological network provides long-term records of daily snow, precipitation, temperature and streamflow measurements. Thus, we used a 30-year data record to calibrate and validate the AgES-W model to three nested sub-basins within the test site. First results show declining discharge volumes for RCEW, while volumes remain fairly constant for the 0.4 km² Reynolds Mountain East (RME) headwater basin. Comparing simulated snow cover with snow-depth records measured across RME, the model was initially tested regarding its reliability to estimate spatio-temporal snow cover. AgES-W was able to simulate snow-depth dynamics quite well (>0.7 Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency) for single measurement points, which were cross-validated using additional measurement points as well as stream discharge. The obtained parameter set was then used to model snow distribution for the entire RME basin for a period of 12 years. Applying the calibrated model to all catchments, we analyzed temporal shifts of seasonal runoff within and between the three nested subwatersheds to identify possible changes in the spatio-temporal pattern of snow accumulation and snowmelt. The model results were further used to analyze and map simulated snow water equivalents along a topographic gradient to identify spatial shifts of the snowline during the last 30 years. First results for RME indicate a decline of snow-covered area based on the course of monthly averages, with the largest declines in January and February.