Testing Earth System Models with Earth System Data: using C isotopes in atmospheric CO2 to probe stomatal response to future climate change

The global cycles of water and carbon are inextricably linked through photosynthesis. This link is largely governed by stomatal conductance that regulates water loss to the atmosphere and carbon gain to the biosphere. Although extensive research has focused on the response of stomatal conductance to increased atmospheric CO2, much less research has focused on the response of stomatal conductance to concomitant climate change. Here we make use of intensive and extensive measurements of C isotopes in source CO2 to the atmosphere (del-bio) to make inferences about stomatal response to climatic factors at a single forest site and across a network of global observation sites. Based on intensive observations at the Niwot Ridge Ameriflux site we discover that del-bio is an excellent physical proxy of stomatal response during the growing season and this response is highly sensitive to atmospheric water vapor pressure deficit (VPD). We use these intensive single forest site observations to inform our analysis of the global observation network, focusing in on the growing season across an array of terrestrial sites. We find that stomatal response across most of these terrestrial sites is also highly sensitive to VPD. Lastly, we simulate the response of future climate change on stomatal response and discover that future increases in VPD may limit the biosphere's capacity to assimilate future CO2 emissions. These results have direct implications for the benchmarking of Earth System Models as stomatal conductance in many of these models does not vary as a function of VPD.