Hot European summers: Present and Future

Hot summers, such as occurred in Europe in 2003, and Russia in 2010 have a devastating societal impact. In 2003, for example, there were over 14,000 heat related deaths in France alone. Predicting how the frequency of such events will change in a changing climate is therefore critically important for planning and adaptation. This study presents a modelling and observational analysis of how the large-scale circulation interacts with terrestrial processes to cause hot summers in Europe. We use an offline land-surface model, in combination with a very high resolution (25 km) global climate model, to investigate how changes in bio-physical processes, land-atmosphere interactions and the large-scale circulation will affect the frequency of hot summers in the future. This study suggests that, not only do changes in climate strongly impact terrestrial ecosystems, but that plant processes have a significant impact on future summer climate in Europe.