Vegetation Fires in the Coupled Human-Earth System Under Future Environmental and Policy Perspectives

Fires play a major role in terrestrial ecosystems dynamics and the carbon cycle. Potential changes in fire regimes due to climate change, land use change, or human management could have substantial ecological, climatic and socio-economic impacts, and have recently been emphasized as a source of uncertainty for policy-makers and climate mitigation cost estimates. Anticipating these interactions thus entails interdisciplinary models. Here we describe the development of a new fire modeling framework, which features the essential integration of climatic, vegetation and anthropogenic drivers. The model is an attempt to realistically account for ignition, spread and termination processes, on a 12-hour time step and at 1 degree spatial resolution globally. Because the quantitative influence of fire drivers on these processes are often poorly constrained, the framework includes an optimization procedure whereby key parameters (e.g. influence of moisture on fire spread, probability of cloud-to-ground lightning flashes to actually ignite a fire, human ignition frequency as a function of land use density) are determined to maximize the agreement between modeled and observed burned area over the past decade. The model performs surprisingly well across all biomes, and shows good agreement on non-optimized features, such as seasonality and fire size, which suggests some potential for robust projections. We couple the model to an integrated assessment model and explore the consequences of mitigation policies, land use decisions and climate change on future fire regimes with a focus on the Amazon basin. The coupled model future projections show that business-as-usual land use expansion would increase the frequency of escaped fires in the remaining forest, especially when combined with models projecting a drier climate. Inversely, climate mitigation policies as projected in the IPCC RCP4.5 scenario achieve synergistic benefits, with increased forest extent, less fire ignitions, and higher moisture levels.