Seasonally-Dynamic SPARROW Modeling of Nitrogen Flux Using Earth Observation Data

SPARROW models are widely used to identify and quantify the sources of contaminants in watersheds and to predict their flux and concentration at specified locations downstream. Conventional SPARROW models describe the average relationship between sources and stream conditions based on long-term water quality monitoring data and spatially-referenced explanatory information. But many watershed management issues stem from intra- and inter-annual changes in contaminant sources, hydrologic forcing, or other environmental conditions which cause a temporary imbalance between inputs and stream water quality. Dynamic behavior of the system relating to changes in watershed storage and processing then becomes important. In this study, we describe dynamically calibrated SPARROW models of total nitrogen flux in three sub-regional watersheds: the Potomac River Basin, Long Island Sound drainage, and coastal South Carolina drainage. The models are based on seasonal water quality and watershed input data for a total 170 monitoring stations for the period 2001 to 2008. Frequently-reported, spatially-detailed input data on the phenology of agricultural production, terrestrial vegetation growth, and snow melt are often challenging requirements of seasonal modeling of reactive nitrogen. In this NASA-funded research, we use Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), gross primary production and snow/ice cover data from MODIS to parameterize seasonal uptake and release of nitrogen from vegetation and snowpack. The spatial reference frames of the models are 1:100,000-scale stream networks, and the computational time steps are 0.25-year seasons. Precipitation and temperature data are from PRISM. The model formulation accounts for storage of nitrogen from nonpoint sources including fertilized cropland, pasture, urban land, and atmospheric deposition. Model calibration is by non-linear regression. Once calibrated, model source terms based on previous season export allow for recursive dynamic simulation of stream flux: gradual increases or decreases in export occur as source supply rates and hydrologic forcing change. Based on an assumption that removal of nitrogen from watershed storage to stream channels and to 'permanent' sinks (e.g. the atmosphere and deep groundwater) occur as parallel first-order processes, the models can be used to estimate the approximate residence times of nonpoint source nitrogen in the watersheds.