Jet and storm track variability and change: adiabatic QG zonal averages and beyond... (Invited)

The zonally averaged structures of extratropical jets and stormtracks, their slow variations, and their responses to climate change are all tightly constrained on the one hand by thermal wind balance and the necessary application of eddy torques to produce zonally averaged meridional motion, and, on the other hand, by the necessity that eddies propagate upshear to extract energy from the mean flow. Combining these constraints with the well developed theory of linear Rossby-wave propagation on zonally symmetric basic states has led to a large and growing number of plausible mechanisms to explain observed and modeled jet/storm track variability and responses to climate change and idealized forcing. Hidden within zonal averages is the reality that most baroclinic eddy activity is destroyed at the same latitude at which is generated: from one end to another of the fixed stormtracks in the Northern Hemisphere and baroclinic wave packets in the Southern Hemisphere. Ignored within adiabatic QG theory is the reality that baroclinic eddies gain significant energy from latent heating that involves sub-syntopic scale structures and dynamics. Here we use results from high-resolution regional and global simulations of the Northern Hemisphere storm tracks to explore the importance of non-zonal and diabatic dynamics in influencing jet change and variability and their influences on the much-studied zonal means.