Uncertainty Analysis of Ozone-Depleting Substances: Mixing Ratios, EESC, ODPs, and GWPs

Important for the recovery of the ozone layer from depletion by ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) is the rate at which ODSs are removed from the atmosphere, that is, their lifetimes. Recently the WCRP/SPARC project conducted an assessment of lifetimes of ODSs [SPARC, 2013] and presented a new set of recommended lifetimes as well as their uncertainties. We present here a comprehensive uncertainty analysis of ODS mixing ratios, levels of equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC), radiative forcing, ozone depletion potentials (ODPs), and global warming potentials (GWPs), using the new lifetimes and their uncertainties as well as uncertainties on all other relevant parameters. Using a box model the year EESC returns to pre-1980 levels, a metric commonly used to indicate a level of recovery for ODS induced ozone depletion, is 2048 for mid-latitudes based on the new lifetimes, which is 2 years later than that based on the lifetimes from WMO [2011]. The uncertainty in this return time is much larger than this change, however. The year EESC returns to pre-1980 levels ranges from is 2038 to 2064 (95% CI) for mid-latitudes and 2060 to 2104 for the Antarctic. The largest contribution to these ranges comes from the uncertainties in the lifetimes, since the current atmospheric burden of CFCs is much larger than the amounts present in existing equipment or still being produced. The earlier end of the recovery times is comparable to the return time in a hypothetical scenario with a cease in anthropogenic ODS emissions in 2014. The upper end of the range corresponds with an extra emission of about 7 MtCFC-11-eq in 2015, or about twice the cumulative anthropogenic emissions of all ODSs from 2014 to 2050. Semi-empirical ODPs calculated using the lifetimes from SPARC [2013] are up to 25% lower than the data reported in WMO [2011] for most species, mainly as a result of the increase in the estimated lifetime of CFC-11. The ODP of Halon-2402 increases by 20%, while the only statistically significant change is the decrease by 50% in the ODP of CFC-115. The uncertainties (95% confidence interval) in ODPs are about 30% for the CFCs and 50 to 100% for the other ODSs. SPARC (2013), Lifetimes of stratospheric ozone-depleting substances, WCRP. WMO (2011), Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2010, WMO. EESC for mid-latitudes with uncertainties applied to the lifetimes of all ODSs.