Monitoring and future projections of the Antarctic Ozone Hole using the new Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS)

Using the new Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS), launched October 2011 on board the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite, we have studied the structure and evolution of the 2012 and 2013 ozone holes. The 1st ozone hole observations by OMPS began in 2012. We quality check the OMPS measurements by comparing to other satellite instruments (Aura MLS, OMI and SBUV) and ozone sonde balloon measurements. The comparisons reveal that OMPS is producing excellent Antarctic ozone hole information, and, thus, OMPS data can be used to continue the historical record of Antarctic ozone observations. In 2012 the ozone hole developed quite normally in the August to-late September 2012 period, but disappeared much more rapidly during the late-September to November period than it would be expected in a normal year. This resulted in the second weakest ozone hole observed since 1988. Some have suggested that the rapid 2012 disappearance is evidence that the Montreal Protocol is working. However, the development of the ozone hole in August and September is largely driven by chlorine and bromine from human-produced compounds, and the normal development of the ozone hole in August-September 2012 suggests that chlorine and bromine levels were roughly the same as previous years. At the same time, observations from meteorological data show that there were stronger than average weather systems, faster warming during the September -November period, and stronger vertical motions, that led to a rapid decay of the 2012 ozone hole. Hence, the weak ozone hole of 2012 is not evidence that the Montreal Protocol has impacted the ozone hole. The characteristics of the 2013 ozone hole, as observed by OMPS, will also be shown in the presentation. Model predictions suggest that the ozone hole will begin showing signs of recovery in about 2018, and it will be fully recovered back to 1980 levels in about 2065. We will update projections of the ozone hole recovery using a parametric model with this OMPS data, meteorological information, and new values of chlorine levels over Antarctica. The continuation of satellite ozone observations, like OMPS, is critical for the next decade as the Antarctic ozone hole is expected to show signs of recovery. Column ozone amounts for 3 layers (26.5-29.5km, 20.5-23.5km, and 14.5-17.5km) from OMPS LP and total column ozone amounts from OMPS TC-NM for 2 September, 19 September, 4 October, 19 October, 7 November, and 21 November 2012. The white circles are within a radius of 1000km of the center of the vortex for that day.