Initiation of the Madden Julian Oscillation and Tropical Cyclone 05 in Extended-Range Multi-Scale Simulations

We have performed a series of 60-day simulations using the Navy's non-hydrostatic COAMPS regional modeling system to examine initiation of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Tropical Cyclone 05 that occurred during the Dynamics of the Madden Julian Oscillation field experiment period (DYNAMO) in November-December 2011. Lateral boundary conditions are provided by NOGAPS (Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System) analyses. The experiments include uncoupled and coupled simulations with 45-km and 27-km horizontal resolutions with domains over the tropics and subtropics that extend from the eastern Atlantic to the eastern Pacific. In the uncoupled simulations, the sea surface temperature (SST), provided by the NCODA (Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation) system, is either held fixed as the initial value or updated with SST analyses every 24 hours. Results from all simulations are verified for the accuracy of MJO and Tropical Cyclone 05 using observed OLR, TRMM precipitation estimates, and NOGAPS analyses. We examine several factors including resolution, SST and air-sea interaction that impact the extended-range predictions for the initiation of the MJO and Tropical Cyclone 05.