Equator-to-Pole and Ocean-Land Temperature Gradients in CMIP5 models and their Relation to Midlatitude Atmospheric Circulation

Zonal and meridional surface temperature gradients are associated with mean zonal circulation and storm-track variability. We investigate the projected changes in the equator-to-pole gradient and the ocean-land contrast in the suite of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). The projected decrease in the gradients is in accordance with the poleward amplification of temperature increases and the faster warming of land compared to the ocean. However, we note differences in the projections between the Northern and the Southern Hemisphere, and among ocean basins in the Northern Hemisphere, that are indicative of competing mechanisms that underlie the projected shifts in the mean zonal circulation and storm tracks. As an additional indicator of the position and strength of midlatitude mean and transient atmospheric circulation, as well as the expansion of the tropics, we study the projected changes in the latitude of maximum meridional surface temperature gradient.