Regional frequency analysis to asses wind resource spatial and temporal variations in Washington State

According to the U.S. Department of Energy's annual wind technologies market report, the wind power capacity in the country grew from 2.5 gigawatts in early 2000 to 60 gigawatts in 2012, making it one of the largest new sources of electric capacity additions in the U.S. in recent years. With over 2.8 gigawatts of current capacity (eighth largest in the nation), Washington State plays a significant role in this rapidly increasing energy resource. To further expand and/or optimize these capacities, assessment of wind resource and its spatial and temporal variations are important. However, since at-site frequency analysis using meteorological data is not adequate for extending wind frequency to locations with no data, longer return period, and heterogeneous topography and surface, a regional frequency analysis based on L-moment method is adopted in this study to estimate regional wind speed patterns and return periods in Washington State using hourly mean wind speed data from 1979 - 2010. The analysis applies the k-means, hierarchical and self-organizing map clustering techniques to explore potential clusters or regions; statistical tests are then applied to identify homogeneous regions and appropriate probability distribution models. The result from the analysis is expected to provide essential knowledge about the areas with potential capacity of constructing wind power plants, which can also be readily extended to assist decisions on their daily operations.