A stratospheric water vapor feedback

Variations in stratospheric water vapor play a role in the evolution of our climate. We show here that variations in water vapor since 2004 can be traced to tropical tropopause layer (TTL) temperature perturbations from at least three processes: the quasi-biennial oscillation, the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation, and the temperature of the troposphere. The connection between stratospheric water vapor and the temperature of the troposphere implies the existence of a stratospheric water vapor feedback. We estimate the feedback in a chemistry-climate model to have a magnitude of +0.3 W/m2/K, which could be a significant contributor to the overall climate sensitivity. About two-thirds of the feedback comes from the extratropical stratosphere below ~16 km (the lowermost stratosphere), with the rest coming from the stratosphere above ~16 km (the overworld).