How Thermal Evolution and Mass-loss Sculpt Populations of Super-Earths and Sub-Neptunes: Application to the Kepler-11 System and Beyond

We use models of thermal evolution and extreme ultraviolet (XUV) driven mass loss to explore the composition and history of low-mass, low-density transiting planets. We investigate the Kepler-11 system in detail and provide estimates of both the current and past planetary compositions. We find that an H/He envelope on Kepler-11b is highly vulnerable to mass loss. By comparing to formation models, we show that in situ formation of the system is extremely difficult. Instead we propose that it is a water-rich system of sub-Neptunes that migrated from beyond the snow line. For the broader population of observed planets, we show that there is a threshold in bulk planet density and incident flux above which no low-mass transiting planets have been observed. We suggest that this threshold is due to the instability of H/He envelopes to XUV-driven mass loss. Importantly, we find that this mass-loss threshold is well reproduced by our thermal evolution/contraction models that incorporate a standard mass-loss prescription. Treating the planets' contraction history is essential because the planets have significantly larger radii during the early era of high XUV fluxes. Over time low-mass planets with H/He envelopes can be transformed into water-dominated worlds with steam envelopes or rocky super-Earths. Finally, we use this threshold to provide likely minimum masses and radial-velocity amplitudes for the general population of Kepler candidates. Likewise, we use this threshold to provide constraints on the maximum radii of low-mass planets found by radial-velocity surveys.