Comparative Study of Solar Wind Control on Ion and Electron Fluxes at Geo from Low to Relativistic Energies

A system identification approach is applied to find the relationship between solar wind parameters and particle measurements at geostationary orbit. The magnetosphere is treated as a black box input-output system, where ACE measurements are used as the inputs and GOES particle data are considered as the outputs. The Error Reduction Ratio is used to assess the significance of various solar wind parameters with respect to the evolution of plasma populations. In the case of electron fluxes, it is shown that the solar wind influence is in accordance with previously obtained results: a major influence of the bulk velocity for lower energies and substantial influence of the solar wind density on the electrons with higher energies. An online real time forecasting tool has been developed as the result to this approach. This tool provides more accurate and reliable forecasts of particle fluxes in various energy ranges.