Probabilistic Forecast of Solar Particle Fluence for Mission Durations and Exposure Assessment in Consideration of Integral Proton Fluence at High Energies

The occasional occurrence of solar particle events (SPEs) with large amounts of energy is non-predictable, while the expected frequency is strongly influenced by solar cycle activity. The potential for exposure to large SPEs with high energy levels is the major concern during extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) on the Moon, near Earth object, and Mars surface for future long duration space missions. We estimated the propensity for SPE occurrence with large proton fluence as a function of time within a typical future solar cycle from a non-homogeneous Poisson model using the historical database for measurements of protons with energy > 30 MeV, Φ₃₀. The database includes a comprehensive collection of historical data set for the past 5 solar cycles. Using all the recorded proton fluence of SPEs, total fluence distributions of Φ₃₀, Φ₆₀, and Φ₁₀₀ were simulated ranging from its 5^th to 95^th percentile for each mission durations. In addition to the total particle intensity of SPEs, the detailed energy spectra of protons, especially at high energy levels, were recognized as extremely important for assessing the radiation cancer risk associated with energetic particles for large events. For radiation exposure assessments of major SPEs, we used the spectral functional form of a double power law in rigidity (the so-called Band function), which have provided a satisfactory representation of the combined satellite and neutron monitor data from ~10 MeV to ~10 GeV. The dependencies of exposure risk were evaluated as a function of proton fluence at a given energy threshold of 30, 60, and 100 MeV, and overall risk prediction was improved as the energy level threshold increases from 30 to 60 to 100 MeV. The results can be applied to the development of approaches of improved radiation protection for astronauts, as well as the optimization of mission planning and shielding for future space missions.