Pluvials, Droughts, Energetics, and the Mongol Empire

The success of the Mongol Empire, the largest contiguous land empire the world has ever known, is a historical enigma. At its peak in the late 13th century, the empire influenced areas from the Hungary to southern Asia and Persia. Powered by domesticated herbivores, the Mongol Empire grew at the expense of agriculturalists in Eastern Europe, Persia, and China. What environmental factors contributed to the rise of the Mongols? What factors influenced the disintegration of the empire by 1300 CE? Until now, little high resolution environmental data have been available to address these questions. We use tree-ring records of past temperature and water to illuminate the role of energy and water in the evolution of the Mongol Empire. The study of energetics has long been applied to biological and ecological systems but has only recently become a theme in understanding modern coupled natural and human systems (CNH). Because water and energy are tightly linked in human and natural systems, studying their synergies and interactions make it possible to integrate knowledge across disciplines and human history, yielding important lessons for modern societies. We focus on the role of energy and water in the trajectory of an empire, including its rise, development, and demise. Our research is focused on the Orkhon Valley, seat of the Mongol Empire, where recent paleoenvironmental and archeological discoveries allow high resolution reconstructions of past human and environmental conditions for the first time. Our preliminary records indicate that the period 1210-1230 CE, the height of Chinggis Khan's reign is one of the longest and most consistent pluvials in our tree ring reconstruction of interannual drought. Reconstructed temperature derived from five millennium-long records from subalpine forests in Mongolia document warm temperatures beginning in the early 1200's and ending with a plunge into cold temperatures in 1260. Abrupt cooling in central Mongolia at this time is consistent with a well-documented volcanic eruption that caused massive crop damage and famine throughout much of Europe. In Mongol history, this abrupt cooling also coincides with the move of the capital from Central Mongolia (Karakorum) to China (Beijing). In combination, the tree-ring records of water and temperature suggest that 1) the rise of the Mongol Empire occurred during an unusually consistent warm and wet climate and 2) the disintegration of the Empire occurred following a plunge into cold and dry conditions in Central Mongolia. These results represent the first step of a larger project integrating physical science and history to understand the role of energy in the evolution of the Mongol Empire. Using data from historic documents, ecological modeling, tree rings, and sediment cores, we will investigate whether the expansion and contraction of the empire was related to moisture and temperature availability and thus grassland productivity associated with climate change in the Orkhon Valley.