Dynamic connectivity in the Southern California Bight and Georges Bank: Identifying ecosystem interactions using chaotic time series analysis

We used convergent cross mapping (CCM), a method grounded in nonlinear dynamical systems theory to analyze long-term time series of fish species from the California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations ichthyoplankton (isolated to the Southern California Bight [SCB]) and NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service Northeast Fisheries Science Center trawl survey (isolated to the Georges Bank [GB] region) data sets. CCM gives a nonparametric indicator of the realized dynamic influence that one species has on another (i.e. how much the abundance of X at a particular time is dependent on the historical abundance of Y). We found there are more interactions between species in SCB compared to GB. An analysis of the interaction matrix showed that there is also more structure in the connectivity network of SCB compared to GB. We attribute this difference in connectivity to historical overexploitation of fish stocks in the North Atlantic, and reproduce this effect in simple multi-species fishery models. We discuss the implications of these results for ecosystem-based management and for restoration efforts.; Connectivity Networks for Fishes in the Southern California Bight (SCB) and Georges Bank (GB) as determined using cross-mapping.