Development of Hydrometeorological Monitoring and Forecasting as AN Essential Component of the Early Flood Warning System:

Defining issue The river inundations are the most common and destructive natural hazards in Ukraine. Among non-structural flood management and protection measures a creation of the Early Flood Warning System is extremely important to be able to timely recognize dangerous situations in the flood-prone areas. Hydrometeorological information and forecasts are a core importance in this system. The primary factors affecting reliability and a lead - time of forecasts include: accuracy, speed and reliability with which real - time data are collected. The existing individual conception of monitoring and forecasting resulted in a need in reconsideration of the concept of integrated monitoring and forecasting approach - from "sensors to database and forecasters". Result presentation The Project: "Development of Flood Monitoring and Forecasting in the Ukrainian part of the Dniester River Basin" is presented. The project is developed by the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Service in a conjunction with the Water Management Agency and the Energy Company "Ukrhydroenergo". The implementation of the Project is funded by the Ukrainian Government and the World Bank. The author is nominated as the responsible person for coordination of activity of organizations involved in the Project. The term of the Project implementation: 2012 - 2014. The principal objectives of the Project are: a) designing integrated automatic hydrometeorological measurement network (including using remote sensing technologies); b) hydrometeorological GIS database construction and coupling with electronic maps for flood risk assessment; c) interface-construction classic numerical database -GIS and with satellite images, and radar data collection; d) providing the real-time data dissemination from observation points to forecasting centers; e) developing hydrometeoroogical forecasting methods; f) providing a flood hazards risk assessment for different temporal and spatial scales; g) providing a dissemination of current information, forecasts and warnings to consumers automatically. Besides scientific and technical issues the implementation of these objectives requires solution of a number of organizational issues. Thus, as a result of the increased complexity of types of hydrometeorological data and in order to develop forecasting methods, a reconsideration of meteorological and hydrological measurement networks should be carried out. The "optimal density of measuring networks" is proposed taking into account principal terms: a) minimizing an uncertainty in characterizing the spacial distribution of hydrometeorological parameters; b) minimizing the Total Life Cycle Cost of creation and maintenance of measurement networks. Much attention will be given to training Ukrainian disaster management authorities from the Ministry of Emergencies and the Water Management Agency to identify the flood hazard risk level and to indicate the best protection measures on the basis of continuous monitoring and forecasts of evolution of meteorological and hydrological conditions in the river basin.