Radar Interferometric Applications for a Better Understanding of the Distribution, Controlling Factors, and Precursors of Large Earthquakes in Turkey

We are analyzing ERS-1 and ERS-2 and ENVISAT data to measure the spatial and temporal variations in three tectonically active areas near Izmit, Duzce and Van provinces in Turkey. We are using ERS-1 and ERS-2 data sets, which provide a longer time period of coverage (1992 to 2001). In addition, we will extend this forward to the present with ENVISAT radar data. The proposed activities can potentially provide predictive tools that can identify precursors to earthquakes and hence develop procedures to identify areas at risk. We are using radar interferometric techniques that have the ability of detecting deformation on the order of millimeters in scale over relatively large areas. We are applying the persistent scatterer and the small baseline subset (SBAS) techniques. A four fold exercise is being conducted: (1) extraction of land deformation rates and patterns from radar interferometry, (2) comparison and calibration of extracted rates to those extracted from existing geodetic ground stations, (3) identification of the natural factors (e.g., displacement along one or more faults) that are largely responsible for the observed deformation patterns, (4) utilizing the extracted deformation rates and/or patterns to identify areas prone to earthquake development in the near future, and (5) utilizing the extracted deformation rates or patterns to identify the areal extent of the domains affected by the earthquakes and the magnitude of the deformation following the earthquakes. The conditions in Turkey are typical of many of the world's areas that are witnessing continent to continent collisions. To date, applications similar to those advocated here for the assessment of ongoing land deformation in such areas and for identifying and characterizing land deformation as potential precursors to earthquakes have not been fully explored. Thus, the broader impact of this work lies in a successful demonstration of the advocated procedures in the study area which will invite similar applications elsewhere and could potentially be beneficial to the lives of millions of people who inhabit these fragile systems.