Tsunami Propagation Database for the Mediterranean and Aegean Seas

Pre-computed tsunami scenario databases are common tools to develop long- or short-term forecasting methodologies and hazard assessment approaches for tsunami-prone regions worldwide. The benefits of such databases include the possibility of probabilistic studies (Gonzalez et al., 2009, J. Geophys. Res. 114, Article Number: C11023), inundation mapping (Barberopoulou et al., 2011, Pure Appl. Geophys. 168(11), 2133-2146), or real-time forecasting (Wei et al., 2008, Geophys. Res. Lett. 35(4), Article Number: L04609). As a result, several tsunami propagation databases have been developed including one by NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL), and another by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM). Pre-computed tsunami scenario databases utilize different approaches. PMEL's tsunami propagation database is based on the concept of a pre-computed tsunami scenarios consisting of propagation results from 100km x 50km fault planes with a slip value of 1m referred to as tsunami source functions. PMEL's source functions are placed along the subduction zones in several rows, covering known faults throughout the major ocean basins. Linearity of the tsunami propagation in the open ocean allows scaling and/or combination of the pre-computed tsunami source functions to generate a desired scenario. The BOM database considers five earthquakes with magnitudes changing from 7.0 to 9.0 at each location with 100km intervals along the subduction zone. However, to date, no similar approach has been computed along the subduction zones in the Aegean and Mediterranean Seas, even though, historically, there have been a considerable number of tsunami events which caused damage in the region (Ambraseys and Synolakis, 2010, J. Earthquake Eng. 14 (3), 309-330, Article Number: PII 919600673). A new project was initiated between Greece and Turkey supported by General Secretariat for Research & Technology, The Ministry for Development (GSRT) of Greece and The Scientific and Technological Research Council (TUBITAK) of Turkey in order to establish a tsunami propagation database primarily in the Aegean Sea but with a natural extension to the Mediterranean Sea. In this project, we placed unit sources of different lengths and widths, considering the local tectonics of the region (Papazachos, 1996, Ann. Geofis. 395, 891-903), i.e., 100km x 50km and 50km x 25km, along the subduction zones and at the proximity of historical events. We also located some historical sources as discussed in previous studies (Ebeling et al., 2012, Tectonophysics 530, 225-239). Model runs for this new propagation database are nearly completed, and preliminary inundation maps were developed for two coastal towns, one in each country. We extensively use the tsunami community modeling tool Community Model Interface for Tsunamis (ComMIT) which is designed for ease of use, and allows dissemination of results to the community while addressing concerns associated with proprietary issues of bathymetry and topography (Titov et al., 2011, Pure Appl. Geophys. 168(11), 2121-2131). We will discuss initial outcomes of the project including modeling of some historical tsunami events. Once finalized, we hope that this database will be extremely useful in developing tsunami-resilient communities in the region using both long- and short-term forecasting.