Subsidence Induced Faulting Hazard risk maps in Mexico City and Morelia, central Mexico

Subsidence and surface faulting have affected urban areas in Central Mexico for decades and the process has intensified as a consequence of urban sprawl and economic growth. This process causes substantial damages to the urban infrastructure and housing structures and in several cities it is becoming a major factor to be considered when planning urban development, land use zoning and hazard mitigation strategies in the next decades. Subsidence is usually associated with aggressive groundwater extraction rates and a general decrease of aquifer static level that promotes soil consolidation, deformation and ultimately, surface faulting. However, local stratigraphic and structural conditions also play an important role in the development and extension of faults. Despite its potential for damaging housing, and other urban infrastructure, the economic impact of this phenomena is poorly known, in part because detailed, city-wide subsidence induced faulting risk maps have not been published before. Nevertheless, modern remote sensing techniques are most suitable for this task. We present the results of a risk analysis for subsidence induced surface faulting in two cities in central Mexico: Morelia and Mexico City. Our analysis in Mexico City and Morelia is based on a risk matrix using the horizontal subsidence gradient from a Persistent Scatterer InSAR (Morelia) and SqueeSAR (Mexico City) analysis and 2010 census population distribution data from Mexico's National Institute of Statistics and Geography. Defining subsidence induced surface faulting vulnerability within these urbanized areas is best determined using both magnitude and horizontal subsidence gradient. Our Morelia analysis (597,000 inhabitants with localized subsidence rates up to 80 mm/yr) shows that 7% of the urbanized area is under a high to very high risk level, and 14% of its population (11.7% and 2.3% respectively) lives within these areas. In the case of the Mexico City (15'490,000 inhabitants for the Mexico city Metropolitan area included within our map, and up to 370 mm/yr subsidence rate) our risk map shows that 13.5% of the urbanized area is under a high to very high risk level, and 26.2% of its population (22.1% and 4.4% respectively) lives within these areas.