A comprehensive Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment for the city of Naples (Italy)

A comprehensive Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) should consider different tsunamigenic sources (seismic events, slide failures, volcanic eruptions) to calculate the hazard on given target sites. This implies a multi-disciplinary analysis of all natural tsunamigenic sources, in a multi-hazard/risk framework, which considers also the effects of interaction/cascade events. Our approach shows the ongoing effort to analyze the comprehensive PTHA for the city of Naples (Italy) including all types of sources located in the Tyrrhenian Sea, as developed within the Italian project ByMuR (Bayesian Multi-Risk Assessment). The project combines a multi-hazard/risk approach to treat the interactions among different hazards, and a Bayesian approach to handle the uncertainties. The natural potential tsunamigenic sources analyzed are: 1) submarine seismic sources located on active faults in the Tyrrhenian Sea and close to the Southern Italian shore line (also we consider the effects of the inshore seismic sources and the associated active faults which we provide their rapture properties), 2) mass failures and collapses around the target area (spatially identified on the basis of their propensity to failure), and 3) volcanic sources mainly identified by pyroclastic flows and collapses from the volcanoes in the Neapolitan area (Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei and Ischia). All these natural sources are here preliminary analyzed and combined, in order to provide a complete picture of a PTHA for the city of Naples. In addition, the treatment of interaction/cascade effects is formally discussed in the case of significant temporary variations in the short-term PTHA due to an earthquake.