Estimated damage from the Cascadia Subduction Zone tsunami: A model comparisons using fragility curves

Building damage from a hypothetical Cascadia Subduction Zone tsunami was estimated using two methods and applied at the community scale. The first method applies proposed guidelines for a new ASCE 7 standard to calculate the flow depth, flow velocity, and momentum flux from a known runup limit and estimate of the total tsunami energy at the shoreline. This procedure is based on a potential energy budget, uses the energy grade line, and accounts for frictional losses. The second method utilized numerical model results from previous studies to determine maximum flow depth, velocity, and momentum flux throughout the inundation zone. The towns of Seaside and Canon Beach, Oregon, were selected for analysis due to the availability of existing data from previously published works. Fragility curves, based on the hydrodynamic features of the tsunami flow (inundation depth, flow velocity, and momentum flux) and proposed design standards from ASCE 7 were used to estimate the probability of damage to structures located within the inundations zone. The analysis proceeded at the parcel level, using tax-lot data to identify construction type (wood, steel, and reinforced-concrete) and age, which was used as a performance measure when applying the fragility curves and design standards. The overall probability of damage to civil buildings was integrated for comparison between the two methods, and also analyzed spatially for damage patterns, which could be controlled by local bathymetric features. The two methods were compared to assess the sensitivity of the results to the uncertainty in the input hydrodynamic conditions and fragility curves, and the potential advantages of each method discussed. On-going work includes coupling the results of building damage and vulnerability to an economic input output model. This model assesses trade between business sectors located inside and outside the induction zone, and is used to measure the impact to the regional economy. Results highlight critical businesses sectors and infrastructure critical to the economic recovery effort, which could be retrofitted or relocated to survive the event. The results of this study improve community understanding of the tsunami hazard for civil buildings.