Cottonwood Tree Rings and Climate in Western North America

In dry landscapes of interior western USA, cottonwood (Populus spp.) seedling establishment often occurs only close to river channels after floods. Where winter is sufficiently cold, cottonwoods also have distinct annual rings and can live up to 370 years, allowing us to reconstruct the long-term history of river flows and channel locations. We have analyzed the annual rate of cottonwood establishment along streams in Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, North Dakota and Idaho. Because the trees germinate next to the river, establishment rates are strongly correlated with the rate of channel migration driven by floods. Along large rivers dominated by snowmelt from the mountains, interannual variation in peak flows and cottonwood establishment is small, and century-scale variation driven by climate change is apparent. The upper Snake, Yellowstone and Green rivers all show a strong decrease in cottonwood establishment beginning in the late 1800s and continuing to the present, indicating a decrease in peak flows prior to flow regulation by large dams. This is consistent with published tree-ring studies of montane conifers showing decreases in snowpack at the same time scale. In contrast, beginning in the late 1800s cottonwood ring widths along the Little Missouri River, North Dakota show an increase in annual growth that continues into the present. Because annual growth is strongly correlated with April-July flows (r=0.69) the ring-width data suggest an increase in April-July flows at the same time tree establishment dates suggest a decrease in peak flows. These results may be reconciled by the hypothesis that increases in low temperatures have decreased snowpack while lengthening the growing season.