Simulations of Water and Energy Cycles over the Congo and Upper Blue Nile basins by IPCC GCMs

The simulations of the hydrological cycle in general circulation models (GCMs) are characterized by a significant degree of uncertainty. This uncertainty is reflected in the wide range of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) GCMs predictions of future changes in the hydrological cycle, particularly over major African basins. Here, we explore the relations between the surface radiation and hydrological cycle within 17 of the IPCC GCMs over the Congo and Upper Blue Nile (UBN) basins. Most GCMs overestimate the hydrological cycle over the basins compared to observations. This overestimation is associated with excess net surface radiation, attributed to an overestimation of downward shortwave radiation and an underestimation of upward longwave radiation at the surface compared to observations. In order to verify if the overestimation of the net radiation is a systematic problem in these models for other regions, the net surface radiation over the Sahara Desert is also investigated. Although the Sahara Desert has a different climatic conditions compared to the studied basins, but the persistent overestimation of the net surface radiation for all models over this region suggests that models tend to overestimate the net surface radiation at least over the majority of the African continent. Our results also show that the increase in horizontal resolution of GCMs results in a better simulations of the hydrological cycle. In addition, the absence of the radiation effects of mineral aerosols, biomass burning and low negative cloud feedback for most of the models can be responsible of the overestimation of both the energy and hydrological cycles over the studied regions.