Temporal & Spatial Distribution of Extreme Heat Event in NYC Metro-Area

Recent studies indicate an increase in extreme summer weather events that may be linked to global warming. Heat wave intensity and frequency trends are a relatively unexplored topic that may demonstrate a more pronounced global warming manifestation than general climate change. Extreme heat events have adverse effects on both, ecosystems and human health, killing over 70,000 in 2003 alone. This study aims to validate that extreme heat events have been increasing in intensity, frequency, duration and affected-area over the past 40 years. The importance of properly defining heat events is stressed. As there is no exact definition, this study uses the adjusted NOAA National Weather Service definition, in terms of heat index, a reference to human comfort as defined by temperature and humidity. A heat wave is defined when maximum outside conditions of human comfort levels are present for consecutive days. Complex cities such as New York (NYC) are also expected to experience more intense heat events when considering the Urban Heat Island Effect. To observe the extent of recent heat events in NYC, heat event trends were produced using data from up to 59 NYCMetNet surface weather stations covering all five boroughs of the City. Map comparisons of heat events from recent years (2010-2012) demonstrate an increase in the effected metro areas with concentrated maximums in the northwest part of the city, attributed to the dense urban landscape and a converging wind zone. To investigate temporal trends of heat waves in NYC, four NOAA-NCDC weather stations in the NYC Metro Area were used, providing data from 1973-2012. The time series results indicate that heat wave maximum intensities are increasing in NYC as a function of time since 1973 at a rate of 1.2°C/decade. The temporal plots demonstrate an annual increase in maximum intensity, frequency, and average event duration that could be attributed to increasing heat island and global warming. Future studies will expand this research to the entire Northeast of US and projections into the future.