Downscaling GRACE satellite data for sub-region groundwater storage estimates in California's Central Valley

The Central Valley aquifer (CVA) is a vital economic and environmental resource for California and the United States, and supplies water for one of the most agriculturally productive regions in the world. Recent estimates of groundwater (GW) availability in California have indicated declines in GW levels that may pose a threat to sustainable groundwater use in this region. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) can be used to estimate variations in total water storage (TWS) and are therefore used to estimate GW storage changes within the CVA. However, using GRACE data in the CVA is challenging due to the coarse spatial resolution and increased error. To compensate for this, we used a statistical downscaling approach applied to GRACE data at the sub-region level using GW storage estimates from the California Department of Water Resources' (DWR) C2VSim hydrological model. This method produced a spatially and temporally variable GW anomaly dataset for sub-region GW management and for analysis of GW changes influenced by spatial and temporal variability. An additional challenge for this region is the influence of natural climate variability, altering GW recharge and influencing pumping practices. Understanding the effects of climate variability on GW storage changes, may improve GRACE TWS and GW estimates during periods of increased rain or droughts. Thus, the GRACE TWS and GW storage estimates were compared to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) using singular spectral analysis (SSA). Results from SSA indicate that variations in GRACE TWS are moderately correlated to PDO (10-25 year cycle), although low correlations were observed when compared to ENSO (2-7 year cycle). The incorporation of these new methods for estimating variations in groundwater storage in highly productive aquifers may improve water management techniques in California.