A New Multi-dimensional Stress Release Statistical Model Based on Co-seismic Stress Transfer

Following the stress release model proposed by Vere-Jones (1978), we developed a new multi-dimensional stress release model, which is a space-time-magnitude version based on multi-dimensional point processes. First, we interpreted the exponential hazard functional of the stress release model as the mathematical expression of static fatigue failure caused by stress corrosion. Then, we reconstructed the stress release model in multi-dimensions through incorporating four independent sub-models: the magnitude distribution function, the space weighting function, the loading rate function, and the co-seismic stress transfer model. Finally, we applied the new model to analyze the historical earthquake catalogues in North China. An expanded catalogue, which contains the information of origin time, epicenter, magnitude, strike, dip angle, rupture length, rupture width and average dislocation, is composed for the new model. The estimated model can simulate the variations of seismicity with space, time and magnitude. Compared with the previous stress release models with the same data, the new model yields much smaller values of AIC and AICc. The estimated model shows that 21 epicenters out of 37 are indicated as higher rates of earthquakes than the mean spatial seismic rate just before the related earthquakes. The map of predicted earthquake rates at the ending time (Jan. 1, 1997) suggests that the next destruct earthquake in North China is likely to occur in the regions south of Datong, north of Beijing and east of Hejian.