Maximum Magnitude and Recurrence Interval for the Large Earthquakes in the Central and Eastern United States

Maximum magnitude and recurrence interval of the large earthquakes are key parameters for seismic hazard assessment in the central and eastern United States. Determination of these two parameters is quite difficult in the region, however. For example, the estimated maximum magnitudes of the 1811-12 New Madrid sequence are in the range of M6.6 to M8.2, whereas the estimated recurrence intervals are in the range of about 500 to several thousand years. These large variations of maximum magnitude and recurrence interval for the large earthquakes lead to significant variation of estimated seismic hazards in the central and eastern United States. There are several approaches being used to estimate the magnitudes and recurrence intervals, such as historical intensity analysis, geodetic data analysis, and paleo-seismic investigation. We will discuss the approaches that are currently being used to estimate maximum magnitude and recurrence interval of the large earthquakes in the central United States.