How often earthquake magnitude can exceed the observed Mmax in Italy?

Italy has one of the longest (c. 2000 years) and most complete historical earthquake catalogs worldwide. To some extent, this circumstance may suggest considering the biggest earthquake in the catalog as a good proxy for the maximum possible earthquake magnitude. However, the maximum reported magnitude in the catalog was exceeded in different tectonic zones of the country in several occasions during the last two centuries and two times in the past decade (31 October - 1 November 2002, Molise earthquakes, that occurred in a relatively aseismic area, and 20-29 May 2012, Emilia earthquakes, that occurred in an area characterized by known blind active faults). In 2004, the National Seismic Hazard Map (MPS04) incorporated magnitude upper bounds based on geologic data where available. Systematic examination of more recent data on fault dimensions suggests that in several areas maximum earthquake magnitudes (M_f) could be larger than those reported in the historical earthquake catalog (M_h). Are these higher values compatible with seismic moment release rates and recurrence properties of Italian earthquakes? If so, which are the areas where the historically observed Mmax is most likely going to be exceeded? To answer these questions, we use frequency-magnitude distribution models balanced with tectonic moment rates to produce two types of maps showing: 1) where M_f is equal or larger than M_h for a fixed recurrence time of 2000 years, which provides a picture of how largely the magnitude observed in history could be exceeded; and 2) what recurrence time characterizes earthquakes with magnitude fixed at a value equal to M_h+ɛ, which shows how frequently a given excess in earthquake magnitude can occur.