Using Smart Planning to Mitigate Drought in Urban Areas: A Seasonal Simulation of the Impact of Urbanization on Precipitation in the Indianapolis Region

The Indianapolis region exhibits a precipitation distribution indicative of urban weather modification: negative bias upwind and positive bias downwind. The causes for such a distribution within an urban area arise from a combination of land-surface heterogeneity and urban aerosol-cloud interaction. This study investigates the causes of the precipitation distribution with a 120-day simulation using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) coupled with the Town Energy Budget (TEB) model. Using a nested grid with a maximum resolution of 500m, a seasonal simulation of May through August, 2008 is conducted. Land surface conditions are varied, removing, expanding, and intensifying the Indianapolis urban area. Aerosol conditions are scaled by a three-dimensional combination of MODIS and CALIPSO observations, and varied in concentration and plume extent. Results from the study demonstrate the paradigm of urban precipitation modification on a seasonal time scale. The boundary between the rural and urban land surfaces weakens approaching systems upwind, decreasing precipitation in the city center. A larger urban extent diminishes the systems further. The aerosol plume downwind increases cloud lifetimes via cloud-nucleating aerosol, then invigorates precipitation via large drizzle-invigorating aerosols. The overall effect reproduces the observed negative precipitation bias upwind and positive bias downwind of the urban center. A lower concentration of aerosols leads to a higher proportion of stratiform rain over a larger area, whereas a higher concentration of aerosols leads to more convective rain and heavy rain events. This manifests in a weekly cycle of precipitation with rain most likely on weekends, and with less frequent but heavier rain events most likely during midweek, when aerosol concentrations are the highest. More intense urbanization, via both land surface and aerosol effects, creates more frequent heavy rainfall events and exacerbates dry-periods, potentially leading to premature drought onset. The wetter than average May, June, and July received more total rainfall from the heavy rainfall events, while the dry August became drier due to lack of stratiform precipitation. Smart planning solutions can partially mitigate the urban precipitation problem. In a simulation where a more intense urban Indianapolis is surrounded by a greenbelt and green roofs are implemented in the city, the urban precipitation bias becomes less significant. Upwind, the greenbelt provides surface moisture and mitigates how much precipitation systems weaken. Downwind, the greenbelt slows the transport of drizzle-invigorating aerosol, reducing the heavy rain events. The green roofs reduce the urban-rural gradient and slow the initial weakening of systems.