Climate Change and Groundwater: A Coupling of Models

Groundwater is the largest source of readily available freshwater on our planet. Aquifers are vulnerable to climate change and require new groundwater management plans to account for changing precipitation patterns and sea level rise, among other factors. Atmospheric General Circulation Models (GCMs) use algorithms applied to historic and modern data to simulate current climatic conditions and predict future changes on a global scale. However, these GCMs are limited in their application at a regional level, thus making hydrogeological predictions difficult. Models designed specifically for hydrogeology are most commonly designed for regional assessment, and they can incorporate GCM outputs. Some of the challenges in coupling GCM outputs and hydrogeological models are the differences in spatial and temporal scales. In addition, the different scenarios of climate response to Greenhouse Gas forcings create a range of outputs from GCMs, affecting the predicting capacity of hydrogeological models. The use of dynamic and statistical downscaling of GCMs make it possible to overcome these challenges by taking the climate simulation output from GCMs and incorporating it as the input for hydrogeological models. This coupling of GCMs to groundwater models makes new groundwater management plans possible, which will ensure the sustainability of these resources in the future. The studies referenced within this paper highlight the advantages and disadvantages of various combinations of coupling and downscaling methodologies.