Climate Risks on Water and Agriculture in the Indus Basin of Pakistan

Pakistan relies on the largest contiguous irrigation system in the world, known as the Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS) for its basic food security and water supply for all sectors of the economy. The basin that supports this irrigation system consists of the Indus River mainsteam and its major tributaries. The integrated systems framework used in this analysis provides a broad and unique approach to estimating the hydrologic and crop impacts of climate change risks, the macro-economic and household-level responses and an effective method for assessing a variety of adaptation investments and policies. In assessing the impacts, several different modeling environments must be integrated to provide a more nuanced and complete picture of how water and agriculture inter-relate. Moreover, such a framework allows for extensive scenario analysis to identify and understand key sensitivities. This is critical to making decisions in a highly uncertain future. Finally, through this integration of multiple disciplines, a richer and more robust set of adaptation investment options and policies for the agriculture and water sectors can be identified and tested. Continued refinements to the assessment approach developed in this volume will further help to sharpen critical policies and interventions by the Pakistan government. Fig 2. Impacts of climate change on GDP, Ag-GDP and Household income in the Indus Basin Fig1. The Indus River Basin