An Analysis of the Variance of Discharged TOC from watershed according to Climate Change Scenarios

Climate change is variance of the current climate by the natural factors and anthropogenic factors. Now, climate change is rapidly changed by industrialization and urbanization. As a result, the change of hydrological structures in watershed is caused by variance of meteorological factor due to climate change. In addition, Total Organic Carbon (TOC) from watershed is affected changes of hydrological structures. In this study, it uses new climate change scenarios, RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways). It is contained by the effects of greenhouse gases and aerosols as well as to the impact of landuse change. Using hydrological structure altered by RCP scenarios, it is researched to variation of TOC. Firstly, using meteorological and hydrological components, it can be estimated to equation about TOC. Using this equation, it calculated quantity of TOC and can be checked change of TOC from watershed. Through result of previous studies, it was checked that the discharged TOC from watershed is affected vegetation as well as hydrological and meteorological elements. Therefore, the equation for calculating TOC will empirically be estimated by meteorological component, hydrological component and characteristic of watershed. Applying to future climate data, it will be calculated TOC in future by estimated equation and check change of TOC pattern. Secondly, combining elasticity theory, it can be confirmed to changes of discharged TOC from watershed. The elasticity is defined to changed pattern of one factor caused by variation of others. In hydrological aspects, elasticity has already been the focus of numerous studies. When estimating the variance of the change of certain weather elements associated with meteorological factors, it also is calculated to variation of hydrological elements simpler than other methods. These studies of variance of discharged TOC from watershed according to climate change scenarios can be used by reference data to studies of global carbon cycle. And it is a help to decision-making process of water environment resource planning and management. Result of rainfall elasticity on river discharges for Nakdong river in Rep. of Korea ;