Assessing the Potential of the AIRS Retrieved Surface Temperature for 6-Hour Average Temperature Forecast in River Forecast Centers

Producing timely and accurate water forecast and information is the mission of National Weather Service River Forecast Centers (NWS RFCs) of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The river forecast system in RFCs requires average surface temperature in the fixed 6-hour period 000-0600, 0600-1200, 1200-1800, and 1200-0000 UTC. The current logic of RFC temperature forecast relies on ingest of point values of daytime maximum and nighttime minimum temperature. Meanwhile, the mean temperature for the 6-hour period is estimated from a weighted average of daytime maximum and nighttime minimum temperature. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) in the first high spectral resolution infrared sounder on board the Aqua satellite which was launched in May 2002 and follows a Sun-synchronous polar orbit. It is aimed to produce high resolution atmospheric profile and surface atmospheric parameters. As Aqua crosses the equator at about 1330 and 0130 local time, the AIRS retrieved surface temperature may represent daytime maximum and nighttime minimum value. Comparing to point observation from surface weather stations which are often sparse over the less-populated area and are unevenly distributed, satellite may obtain better area averaged observation. This test study assesses the potential of using AIRS retrieved surface temperature to forecast 6-hour average temperature for NWS RFCs. The California Nevada RFC is selected due to the poor coverage of surface observation in the mountainous region and spring snow melting. The study focuses on the March to May spring season when water from snowpack melting often plays important role in flood. AIRS retrieved temperature and surface weather station data set will be used to derive statistical weighting coefficient for 6-hour average temperature forecast. The resulting forecast biases and errors will be the main indicators of the potential usage. All study results will be presented in the meeting.